[内容摘要] 在当代中国，城市居民是“经济人”但不是现代公民，其目标是追求即时利益的最大化，精于成本与收益计算，决定是否参与选举以及如何参与，社区选举陷入投机博弈困境。在选举过程中，为达到“双过半”要求，地方政府和社区组织只能通过选择性激励机制（政治动员或物质激励）来化解这一困境，但选择性激励机制会因社会成本的增加而难以为继。培育现代公民社会，增强居民自组织能力，是走出投机博弈困境的有效途径。
[关键词] 社区选举 投机博弈 公民社会
Abstract：In contemporary China, the urbanites are " economic men " instead of modern citizens, their goals are to pursue the maximization of their instant interests．They are good at calculating costs and profits, then determine whether to participate and how to participate．It easily causes the community election into game of speculation．In the course of electing, in order to reach the aim of double over half, the local governments and community organizations can only dissolve this predicament through the incentive mechanism of the alternative (politics is mobilized or the material is encouraged ) , but the mechanism will be hard to carry on because of increase of the social cost. So it is the effective way to cultivate modern citizen society and strengthen resident ability of self-organizing．
Key words：community election；game of speculation；civil society
一、理论阐述
1、相关概念分析
（1）本文中的投机博弈是指在社区共同体中，居民不是以公民身份，不是因关心社区公共事务而参与社区公共活动；相反，抱着一种投机心态，为获取个人短期利益，哪怕是蝇头小利而参与公共活动，致使社区公共利益受损。在社区选举中，投机博弈具体表现为多种行为模式：要么是为获取补贴、纪念品而参与投票；要么是因无法分享公共资源而采取不参与或对抗行为；要么是为了从掌管公共资源中获利，通过隐蔽结盟，采取非公开的、群体性的竞选；要么是为获得个人就业岗位而参与竞选。